Speaking to reporters, Jadhav, a former vice-chancellor of the University of Pune (UoP), said that the Planning Commission, which is due for an elaborate mid-term appraisal of the 11th Five-Year Plan (2007-12), was anticipating the average growth for the five-year term ending 2012, to be at 6.8 p.c. This, considering that the growth rate will pick up to 8 p.c. by 2010-11 and to 9 p.c. by 2011-12.
Citing the 26 p.c. shortfall in the country's average rainfall till end of August, Jadhav said that the effect of drought would "minimise" only if there is good rainfall in the month of September.
"All government schemes were planned on the basis of the 9 p.c. growth projection at the beginning of the 11th plan, and availability of resources for the same. Now that the average growth is expected to be at 6.8 p.c., this means lesser resources and we will have to reprioritise the spending," he said.
Jadhav said that the reprioritisation exercise will be a major challenge and may bring some unpopularity to the Planning Commission. Especially, when the Union finance minister has called for bringing down the country's fiscal deficit from the existing over 6 p.c. to 5.5 p.c. of the GDP by the next Union Budget and further to 4 p.c. in the ensuing Budget, he said. "We may have to reduce unplanned expenditure. The government may also have to consider measures like disinvestment of public sector undertakings," he added.
"The country has suffered a double whammy this year in the form of the global economic slowdown and the drought. As a result, we see the growth rate to be less than the 9 p.c. at the start of the 11th plan," Jadhav said.
Jadhav hastened to add that despite the growth projection coming down from 9 p.c. to 6.3 p.c. by 2009-10, the country was still better placed in terms of most developed economies in the west.
Fresh spell of rain holds hope for northern states
PUNE: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has some good news, particularly for the country's northern states.
Talking to TOI, the IMD's deputy director general for weather forecasting A B Mujumdar said, "We don't expect September to be so bad. So far, the first six days of the month have been good and we expect the rainfall activity to continue for the next four or five days."
Mujumdar added that the northern states in particular will receive good rains, while some areas in interior Maharashtra, including the central Maharashtra belt stretching from Jalgaon in the north to Kolhapur down south with Pune at the centre, Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, will experience a decrease in rainfall activity. "The coastal Konkan belt, which includes Mumbai, will continue to receive good showers," he added.
The June-to-September south-west monsoon season is considered crucial for India's predominantly rain-fed agrarian economy. The rains in July and August, in particular, are important for the Kharif crops.
This season, poor rains have compelled the IMD to revise its long-term forecast from 96 p.c. (made in April) to 93 p.c. (in June) and further down to 87 p.c. in August. Almost 40 p.c. of the country's total area is reeling under drought-like conditions.
What makes the IMD hopeful about the country receiving a good spell of rains in the days ahead, as Mujumdar said, is the presence of a deep depression over Jharkhand, which is expected to move in the north-westerly direction. "The revival of monsoon currents on account of this weather formation will result in rains over states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh," said Mujumdar.
"So far, the southern states had benefited from rains but, the prevailing weather conditions promise much for the northern states vis-?-vis recovery of rainfall deficiency," he added.
For instance, Mujumdar said, "Bihar's rainfall deficiency is at minus 24 p.c. and we expect a recovery of close to normal rainfall there by end of September." Similarly, Uttar Pradesh too will benefit, he added.
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